Prices:
In Egypt, price increases have been observed ahead of the Indian tender. On December 13, sales were made at an FOB price of $384 per ton, but by the end of the week, this had risen to $393 per ton. This price has not yet reached the peak for 2024, which was $410 per ton FOB.
Algeria has also experienced price increases, reaching a lower range of $390 per ton FOB. Dangote in Nigeria witnessed an increase of more than $20 per ton this week, with shipments sold at prices ranging from $345 to $347 per ton for loading in January. This price too has not yet reached the peak of $410 per ton FOB for 2024.
CFR values in Africa have not yet followed the FOB trend; however, in France, higher prices have been achieved this week, and Turkey has also paid higher amounts.
Turkey is facing challenges due to a shortage of urea from Iran (except for Pardis, which is closed). Granular urea sales are currently reported at CFR prices of $400 to $405 per ton, with expectations that supply will come from Egypt or the Black Sea.
Iran announced a higher price this week (FOB $315 per ton), but the lack of offers resulted in no sales.
India Market:
The market is now focused on developments in India. NFL received proposals today seeking 1.5 million tons of urea, but quantities and prices have yet to be determined. It is expected that the number of offers and quantities provided will be clarified tomorrow, December 20, but it may take a few more days to finalize prices. There is much speculation in the market regarding the final price, with most forecasts between CFR $360 and $370 per ton. However, prices have not yet reached the CFR levels of $385 to $400 per ton achieved in February 2024.
Middle East and Southeast Asia:
Middle Eastern prices are believed to be in the range of FOB $350 per ton and higher, with a recent shipment to Australia trading at FOB $358 per ton.
Southeast Asia does not seem capable of seriously competing with India, as Indonesia and Malaysia appear to be out of the running for January, and BFI has offered its January shipments this week at pre-sale prices of FOB $355 to $367 per ton.
Russian granular urea will undoubtedly play a role in the tender. Prices announced today are generally FOB $310 per ton or higher for maritime trade, with shipping costs to the west coast of India estimated at around $45 to $50 per ton.
Price Release Schedule (Fertilizer Week):
The latest weekly price assessments in Fertilizer Week will be conducted on Thursday, December 19, after which limited services will be available until Thursday, January 2. No price assessment will be conducted on Thursday, December 26, 2024. The first price assessments for 2025 will be released on Thursday, January 2, while the short-term January forecast will be published on Tuesday, January 7.
Key Events of the Week:
• NFL received proposals for 1.5 million tons of urea.
• Urea prices in Egypt reached FOB $393 per ton.
• Prices in NOLA decreased during the week.
• The Ethiopian tender concludes on December 23.
• BFI sold its January shipments at FOB $367 per ton.
Short-Term Outlook:
If the Indian tender concludes successfully and NFL secures 1 million tons of urea, the market will be firm. Overall, it is believed that 1.5 million tons of urea requested may not be available. African prices depend on the sustainability of European price levels during the quiet holiday period.
Analysis: The report indicates that the urea market is fluctuating. Price increases in Egypt, Algeria, and Nigeria reflect strong demand but have not yet reached the peak prices for 2024. The Indian tender is critical, with expectations that prices will fall between CFR $360 and $370, which is lower than February 2024 prices. The entry of Russian urea will also impact the tender. Uncertainty regarding the supply of 1.5 million tons of urea in India and the effects of holidays in Europe complicate forecasts. Overall, the market is unstable in the short term and depends on various factors such as the Indian tender, supply and demand dynamics, and global economic conditions. It is also important to pay attention to CFR prices compared to FOB prices, as they indicate the cost differential in transportation.
