Key Analysis from Profercy Report (Urea Market – July 17, 2025)

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 1. Major Developments in the Urea Market
• India has purchased 1.47 million tons of urea, marking the largest purchase from Q4 2023 to date.
• The market is under severe regional demand pressure, particularly from:
• India (strong monsoon)
• Middle East
• Africa (Nigeria)

 Conclusion: Producers remain in a strong position, prices are in an upward phase, and anticipation for India’s next tender has kept the market in a state of suspension.

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 2. Regional Analysis

 Middle East
• Remains the main supplier to India (600–650 thousand tons).
• Qatar and Oman play a key role in shipments to India, but disruptions have been reported.

 China
• Despite the ban on exporting prilled urea to India, a new export quota of 1–1.6 million tons has been released.
• FOB urea prices in China are relatively lower (420–440 USD), but granule exports will remain limited.

 USA
• Trump’s tariff policy against Russia may be implemented by September and could change price trajectories.

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 3. Price Difference of Iran in the Regional Market

Iran’s FOB urea price (431–436 USD)
Compared to Gulf FOB (478–484 USD)

 Difference: 45–50 USD/ton

 Special export opportunity for Iran if financial access, transportation, and marketing improve.

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 4. Global Market Risks

Potential Impact Issues
China’s export ban on India Shortage of prilled urea and price increases
US tariffs against Russia Price increase in North America
Liquidity issues in Brazil Reduced imports in the short term
Disruption at ShchekinoAzot in Russia Decreased regional supply in Europe

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 5. Short-term Market Forecast

Country Forecast
India New tender expected by the end of August
China Focus on limited granule exports
Brazil Potential improvement in imports during peak season (Q3-Q4)
Europe Remaining in a low-demand period until fall

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 Analytical Summary
1. The market is in a controlled upward state, especially for granule grades.
2. India’s buying pressure will strengthen in the coming months and could be a turning point for global prices.
3. Opportunity for Iran:
• Exports to Latin America and Africa (with competitive pricing and flexible payment)
• Utilizing the 45–50 USD price difference in FOB markets
4. The geopolitical risk between the US and Russia and China’s policies have significant effects on the global market and should be closely monitored.