*Urea market activity intensified this week, with market sentiment strengthening in most regions.*
Prices in the East of Suez rose after readjustment following offers from China, increasing from lower levels. Cash shipments of granular urea were primarily traded at prices ranging from $375 to $380 per ton FOB Persian Gulf for June shipments. Kaltim Indonesia sold approximately 100,000 tons of granular urea at prices between $370 and $380 FOB. *In Iran, a significant volume was also traded, with around 200,000 tons sold in the range of $330 to $338 FOB.* Urea prices surged in North Africa as at least five Egyptian urea plants were shut down due to gas cuts over the weekend; *transactions were conducted at prices of $400 and above.* Additionally, in Ethiopia, a tender for over 250,000 tons was finalized. Granular urea prices in Brazil also increased, reaching $385 to $400 CFR, with some transactions reported even up to $410. However, the U.S. market remains lagging, with prices for June reducing the NOLA range to $375 to $475 per short ton FOB.
Price Differences Compared to Last Week (May 22 vs. May 15)
Urea Prilled – Bulk:
• Baltic FOB: 345-360 → 345-355 (+5 / unchanged lower range)
• China FOB: 355-365 → 350-360 (+5)
Granular Urea – Bulk:
• *Middle East FOB (non-U.S.): 375-380 → 375-387 (-2 lower range)*
• Egypt (Europe) FOB: 400-402 → 380-390 (+20)
• Baltic FOB: 380-390 → 350-360 (+30)
United States:
• U.S. Gulf FOB: 375-475 → 410-530 (-35 lower range)
• NOLA Weighted Average: 463.83 → 502.67 (-38.84)
Brazil CFR:
• 385-400 → 370-380 (+15)
Europe:
• Atlantic Ocean France FCA: 390-400 → 385-400 (+5 upper range)
North Africa:
• Egypt (non-Europe): 375-390 → 377-400 (-2)
• Algeria: 380-405 → 382-400 (-2 lower range)
• Total North Africa: 375-405 → 377-400 (-2 lower range)
Iran:
• *334-338 → 330-337 (+4 upper range)*
Southeast Asia:
• FOB: 370-380 → 375-385 (-5)
• CFR: 390-400 → 385-395 (+5 upper range)
India:
• 385.00–398.24 → unchanged
Other Regions (Selected):
• Mexico (CFR): 385-395 → 380-390 (+5)
• Argentina (CFR): 410-420 → 395-400 (+15)
• China FOB (Automotive Urea): unchanged
• Brazil FOB (Automotive Urea): unchanged
Detailed Analysis
*• Middle East: Stable transactions have occurred, with prices remaining around $375-$380. The price range has tightened slightly compared to last week.*
*• Iran: Demand for Iranian urea has strengthened, with high trading volumes and noticeable price increases.*
*• North Africa: Production disruptions in Egypt led to a sharp increase in prices. The market reacted quickly.*
*• Brazil: The Brazilian market is strengthening, with prices approaching $400 due to higher demand.*
*• United States: In contrast to other regions, the U.S. has seen a decline in prices due to reduced demand or competitive imports.*
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Overall Analysis
The global urea market experienced growth in liquidity and increased demand across many regions during the week ending May 22. *The East of Suez and Iran played key roles in stimulating the market*, while production disruptions in Egypt and the Ethiopian tender also had significant impacts. However, it is expected that Chinese exports in the second half of June will influence prices and lead to adjustments. The Indian market is also on the verge of announcing new tenders, which could act as a price-driving force. Prices are likely to remain strong in the short term but may experience fluctuations in the medium term.
Best regards,
Dr. Nader Salek
